Baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 PM on December 1, 2026. After that, there is no deal governing player salaries, free agency rules, revenue sharing, or the luxury tax. If the owners and the players’ union can’t agree on a new CBA, baseball could face its first lost games since the devastating 1994 strike that killed the World Series.
This is not speculation for its own sake. The 2021–2022 lockout lasted 99 days and nearly wiped out the start of the 2022 season. The two sides have deep, structural disagreements that haven’t gone away — and this time, the owners are pushing for something the union has never accepted: a hard salary cap.
The biggest flashpoint is the salary cap. MLB owners have argued publicly that payroll disparity is out of control. In 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers carried a competitive balance tax payroll reportedly north of $400 million, while the Miami Marlins sat below $90 million. Owners of smaller-market teams say they can’t compete, and several have openly called for a hard spending ceiling.
The MLB Players Association has treated a salary cap as a non-starter for decades. The MLBPA views a cap as a mechanism that suppresses salaries by creating an artificial ceiling on what teams can pay. The union fought a bitter 232-day strike in 1994–1995 specifically to block a salary cap, and players won that fight when a federal judge — future Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor — issued an injunction against the league.
Beyond the cap, the two sides could also clash over free agency timelines, revenue sharing formulas, minimum salary levels, and the luxury tax structure. Each of these issues creates winners and losers, and negotiations often stall because one side’s gain feels like the other side’s loss.
Baseball has a longer history of labor disputes than any other major North American sport. There have been eight work stoppages since 1972, including five strikes and three lockouts. The most significant include the 1981 strike (50 days, roughly a third of the season lost), the 1994–1995 strike (232 days, the entire postseason canceled including the World Series), and the 2021–2022 lockout (99 days, spring training delayed but the full 162-game season was preserved).
The 1994 strike remains the most damaging labor event in American professional sports history. It took years for attendance to recover, and many fans say they never fully came back. That history looms over every negotiation.
If the CBA expires without a new agreement, the most likely scenario is an owner-initiated lockout — the same tool they used in December 2021. In a lockout, players are barred from team facilities, trades and signings are frozen, and no official baseball activities take place. Spring training could be delayed or canceled, and if the dispute drags into late March or beyond, regular-season games could be lost.
A player strike is also possible, though less common in recent decades. In a strike, players refuse to report or play, which could happen during the season itself — as it did in August 1994. Either way, the result is the same: no games, no revenue, and mounting pressure on both sides to cut a deal.
MLB Strike 2027 is a free browser game that puts you in the Commissioner’s chair during a fictional player strike beginning in December 2026. The game is not a prediction. It is a simulation that lets you feel the pressure of negotiating a new CBA from the inside — managing relationships with the players’ union, team owners, and the general public while navigating crises, media pressure, and political interference.
You set the salary cap, salary floor, luxury tax, revenue sharing, minimum salary, and free agency rules — and every decision shifts three approval meters. Push too hard on one side, and the other revolts.
You can also try the standalone Salary Cap/Floor Tool to design your own CBA proposal and see which side hates it most.
ESPN: Guide to MLB’s Labor Battle
CBS Sports: MLB’s State of Labor
Baseball Reference: CBA History